Macroeconomic

Currencies

The Fed's minutes are out. Mortgage rates may follow.

Oct 7, 2026

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3 min read

The Fed's minutes are out. Mortgage rates may follow.

The Fed's internal debate is no longer internal — the September minutes just dropped, and markets are already repricing what comes next.

Macroeconomic

29,000 jobs. Markets threw a party anyway.

Oct 6, 2026

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2 min read

29,000 jobs. Markets threw a party anyway.

The jobs report came in so bad it broke the script — and Wall Street celebrated.

Currencies

Oct 5, 2026

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3 min read

29,000 jobs. The Fed just blinked.

Friday's jobs report landed like a bucket of cold water on the rate-hike crowd, and markets are still wringing it out this morning.

Bonds

🛢️ Brent just crossed $102. Three carriers in the Gulf.

Oct 2, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Brent just crossed $102. Three carriers in the Gulf.

The Persian Gulf now has three US aircraft carriers in it, and the price of oil just crossed $102 a barrel for the first time in months. That tends to get people's attention.

Bonds

Oct 1, 2026

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3 min read

Core PCE just blinked. Rates didn't.

The Fed's favourite inflation gauge finally cooperated. The bond market didn't care.

Bonds

📉 30-yr Treasury yield hits a 24-year high today

Sep 30, 2026

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3 min read

📉 30-yr Treasury yield hits a 24-year high today

The bond market just sent a message, and it wasn't subtle.

Currencies

🛢️ Trump just rejected the Hormuz deal. $107 oil.

Sep 29, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Trump just rejected the Hormuz deal. $107 oil.

Trump said no to Iran's seven-day reopening proposal overnight, and the ripple reached Australian mortgage holders by Tuesday morning.

Bonds

🛢️ Diesel hits $6.51. Your grocery bill knows.

Sep 25, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Diesel hits $6.51. Your grocery bill knows.

The pump, the mortgage, the trade war — all three came to a head yesterday, and none of them resolved cleanly.

Macroeconomic

Sep 24, 2026

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3 min read

🔔 Two-month trade window. Not six.

The handshake happened. Xi's in Washington, the trade truce is extended, and markets should feel relieved. They don't, quite — because two months is a very short runway.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

🛢️ Oil at $99 is now setting your interest rate.

Sep 23, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Oil at $99 is now setting your interest rate.

Oil didn't crash, didn't spike — it just sat there near $99 a barrel, quietly rewriting central bank policy from Washington to Sydney.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

Brent just broke $100. One sentence did it.

Sep 22, 2026

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3 min read

Brent just broke $100. One sentence did it.

Monday was, in a word, unusual. A Sunday-night Fox News interview moved oil markets, an AI agent that books your holidays sent chipmakers to a trillion-dollar milestone, and U.S.-China diplomacy produced something that's genuinely never existed before. Markets noticed all of it.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

🛢️ Oil near $100. Mortgages at 7.24%. Same week.

Sep 21, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Oil near $100. Mortgages at 7.24%. Same week.

The week opened with a missile strike on Riyadh, a mortgage rate at a 19-month high, and the two most powerful economies on Earth sitting down in New York. Buckle up.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

The Fed just hiked for the first time in 3 years.

Sep 18, 2026

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3 min read

The Fed just hiked for the first time in 3 years.

Kevin Warsh walked into his first FOMC decision and raised rates. No dissents. No hedging. Just a 12-0 vote and a dot plot that's already pointing at October.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

Sep 17, 2026

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3 min read

The Fed just hiked for the first time in 3 years.

Kevin Warsh walked into his second FOMC meeting and came out swinging: a unanimous hike, a firm tone, and a dot plot that says the committee isn't done yet.

Alex Monroe

Bonds

🏦 5%: the yield that changes your mortgage math

Sep 16, 2026

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3 min read

🏦 5%: the yield that changes your mortgage math

The number that matters most today isn't the Fed's rate decision. It's 5.02 — the yield on the 10-year Treasury that got there before the Fed even touched a dial.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

Sep 14, 2026

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3 min read

📈 85% chance of a rate hike in 72 hours

The Fed's 17 September meeting just got a lot less ambiguous — and the rest of today's news isn't exactly calming anyone down.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

🛢️ Oil hit $107. Your Fed decision just got harder.

Sep 11, 2026

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2 min read

🛢️ Oil hit $107. Your Fed decision just got harder.

Oil just did the thing markets feared most this week: it stopped being background noise and started being the story.

Alex Monroe

Bonds

Sep 10, 2026

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3 min read

ECB hikes again. A war is why.

Christine Lagarde didn't want to raise rates again. The oil price left her no choice.

Alex Monroe

Bonds

🛢️ Oil just hit $99.46. Your grocery bill noticed.

Sep 9, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Oil just hit $99.46. Your grocery bill noticed.

Saudi Arabia's oil facilities are on fire, and the ripple is already in your gas tank.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

🛢️ Oil at $97, jobs too strong, rates going up.

Sep 8, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Oil at $97, jobs too strong, rates going up.

The energy market, the labour market, and the Bank of Japan all delivered news this week that lands the same way: higher for longer isn't fading, it's widening.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

🛢️ US sank three tankers. Brent's at $97.

Sep 7, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ US sank three tankers. Brent's at $97.

The weekend didn't stay quiet for long.

Alex Monroe

Bonds

🛢️ Iran hit Kuwait. Oil jumped. Then Trump blinked.

Sep 4, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Iran hit Kuwait. Oil jumped. Then Trump blinked.

Kuwait woke up to Iranian missiles, and the oil market woke up to a White House quietly looking for an exit ramp. It's that kind of morning.

Alex Monroe

Bonds

🛢️ Brent just hit $94.86. Your bills notice.

Sep 3, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Brent just hit $94.86. Your bills notice.

The Strait of Hormuz is now a warzone and a chokepoint at the same time, and markets spent yesterday pricing in exactly what that means.

Alex Monroe

Bonds

🛢️ Oil just hit $91. Your energy bill is next.

Sep 2, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Oil just hit $91. Your energy bill is next.

September arrived with a bang: US strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, a 30-year high in Japanese bond yields, and European inflation running hotter than anyone wanted — all in one trading session.

Alex Monroe

Currencies

🛢️ Oil just hit $86. Here's who benefits.

Sep 1, 2026

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3 min read

🛢️ Oil just hit $86. Here's who benefits.

The Middle East handed markets a rough start to September: oil up, stocks down, and a Fed chair who's already leaning hawkish getting more ammunition than he needs.

Alex Monroe

Macroeconomic

The Fed's minutes are out. Mortgage rates may follow.

29,000 jobs. Markets threw a party anyway.

29,000 jobs. The Fed just blinked.

🛢️ Brent just crossed $102. Three carriers in the Gulf.

Core PCE just blinked. Rates didn't.

📉 30-yr Treasury yield hits a 24-year high today

🛢️ Trump just rejected the Hormuz deal. $107 oil.

🛢️ Diesel hits $6.51. Your grocery bill knows.

🔔 Two-month trade window. Not six.

🛢️ Oil at $99 is now setting your interest rate.

Brent just broke $100. One sentence did it.

🛢️ Oil near $100. Mortgages at 7.24%. Same week.

The Fed just hiked for the first time in 3 years.

The Fed just hiked for the first time in 3 years.

🏦 5%: the yield that changes your mortgage math

📈 85% chance of a rate hike in 72 hours

🛢️ Oil hit $107. Your Fed decision just got harder.

ECB hikes again. A war is why.

🛢️ Oil just hit $99.46. Your grocery bill noticed.

🛢️ Oil at $97, jobs too strong, rates going up.

🛢️ US sank three tankers. Brent's at $97.

🛢️ Iran hit Kuwait. Oil jumped. Then Trump blinked.

🛢️ Brent just hit $94.86. Your bills notice.

🛢️ Oil just hit $91. Your energy bill is next.

🛢️ Oil just hit $86. Here's who benefits.

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